solibulk.blogg.se - Goldilocks economy thanks to obama

If the 6.750 million people who are not in the labor force but say they actually want a job suddenly started looking for work, they would be counted in the unemployment rate and that rate would have been 11.68% in December.

The number of long-term unemployed peaked in April 2010 at 6.73 million.

Long-term unemployed: The number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) was 4.77 million in December 2012, the lowest it has been since June 2009 (4.37 million).

If the labor force participation rate was the same in December 2012 as it was when President Obama took office (65.7%), then the December 2012 unemployment rate would have been 10.73%.

Labor force participation is lower today versus when President Obama took office and recovery began.

The November 2012 unemployment rate was adjusted up (from 7.7% to 7.8%) - that is why the government is reporting that the unemployment rate “remained unchanged” while others not used to confusing government data manipulations understandably think it went up from last month.

Unemployment rates for African Americans at 14% - up 0.8 percentage points from November 2012 and teenagers at 23.5% – down 0.1 percentage points from November 2012 - are still really high.

Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget. Yet while falling short of his hope, it sets up a strong second year - and an even stronger cause/effect relationship with his tax reform victory. His first year economy’s performance was solid, but not spectacular. Obama’s, but with ample room to show tax reform’s boost. It offers the perfect comparison between the Obama and Trump economies: Far better than Mr. However the third and most important, the economy, is proving to be just right.

The one too cold may prove to be this year’s. The one too hot was last year’s stock market. Instead he finds three bowls of porridge. They cannot help wondering how he could wander into a den of bears and not get mauled the way Mr. As its effect is felt, especially accelerating economic growth, expect greater popularity. Politically, tax reform’s popularity is beginning to rise, despite unmitigated battering in the press.

The Atlanta Fed’s economic model projects 5.4 percent growth for the first quarter. And if 2018 also turned out to be good, critics would have said it was no better than 2017 - so there was neither effect from, nor point to, tax reform.Īlready there are signs 2018 is ready to deliver economically. Obama’s acolytes have tried to credit the former administration for the current’s success. Had 2017 been too hot, it would have been attributed to luck - just as Mr. Never mind that it would have been in-line with Mr. Yet 2017’s biggest contribution will not be in the recovery it started, but in the clear demarcation it provides for his signature achievement. It was also better than the 1.5 percent annual average during President Obama’s eight years. Its growth rate was far better than 2016’s 1.6 percent. That’s all the better politically for Mr. Second, when you sign it - and, like tax reform, it would not have happened without you - you doubly do.įurther, tax reform gives Mr. As president, you own what happens on your watch. Trump, it sets him up for credit from the widely expected growth.įirst, tax reform happened on Mr. Trump did not get until the very end of 2017 with tax reform. Yet in politics it is tangible action that counts.

Absolutely, the expectation anti-business policies will not prevail is a boost. True, increased national confidence helps. While Trump could have claimed ownership for a great first year - and any president would - he lacked a significant policy to attribute growth to.